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Отчет о состоянии отрасли технического углерода в Китае за первую половину 2024 года
2024-06-28
Carbon black market overview
In the first half of 2024, the trend of the carbon black market has shrunk compared with last year, and the overall trend of the market has maintained a symmetrical figure "M". During this period, it has experienced a sharp rise and fall for two months. Coincidentally, the price difference is almost the same, which is a ups and downs.
In the first half of 2024, the market price of carbon black fluctuate more than once. Taking carbon black N330 as an example, the market price of 7,450 yuan/ton in mid-January was the lowest in the first half of the year, and the market price ofcarbon black reached the highest point of 9,250 yuan/ton in early March. Overall, carbon black market prices were relatively flat in mid-2023 compared to the beginning of the year.
Profit analysis of carbon black industry
The overall profit level of carbon black market in the first half of 2024 is general. Taking carbon black enterprise N330 in Shandong area as an example, the theoretical average profit level in the first half of 2024 is -38.29 yuan/ton, while the theoretical average profit level in the first half of 2023 is -84.67 yuan/ton, and the carbon black industry in the first half of 2023 turns from profit to loss.
The reasons for the low profit level of carbon black enterprises in the first half of 2024 are mainly as follows: first, the price of raw material high-temperature coal tar increased, the cost pressure of carbon black enterprises increased, some carbon black enterprises had high load production, and the profit loss of carbon black industry was substantial.
Second, downstream enterprises are strong in suppressing carbon black, and the market price of carbon black has fallen sharply, dragging the profits and losses of enterprises.
Third, the market of the downstream tire industry is weak, and the long-term pressure on the carbon black market is maintained. The demand side only maintains the need to buy, dragging the profit and loss of carbon black enterprises.
Analysis of carbon black production in China in 2023-2024
According to Tu Duoduo's statistics, China's carbon black production in the first half of 2024 was 2,874,200 tons, an increase of 12.46% over the same period last year, and the output increased by 318,500 tons.
Carbon black imports and exports in the first half of 2024
From January to May, 2014, China's total carbon black imports increased significantly compared with last year, with the most obvious increase in April. China imported 123,000 tons of carbon black, an increase of 15.09% compared with the same period last year, and the import increased by about 16,000 tons.
From January to May 2024, China's total carbon black exports increased significantly compared with last year, with the most obvious increase in January. China's carbon black exports totaled 364,200 tons, an increase of 42.71% compared with the same period last year, and the export volume increased by about 109,000 tons.
Carbon black market outlook
Future forecast: the price of carbon black market in the second half of 2024 May show a range of shocks.
Cost side: Downstream deep processing products after the increase of the shipment performance is less than expected, the favorable atmosphere of the coal tar market is difficult to continue, is expected to operate at a low price of high temperature coal tar market in the short term, and the cost of carbon black is not well supported.
Supply side: In recent years, the overall profit of carbon black industry is not good, and the phenomenon of enterprise maintenance has increased, and the overall operating rate is relatively low.
Demand side: downstream tire enterprises are still in the seasonal off-season, although the market is affected by buying up and not buying down, the enthusiasm of the inquiry is increased compared with the previous period, but the stocking mentality of the enterprise is still more cautious, more just need to purchase, more light and stable operation on the demand side, and the short-term market price of carbon black is expected to remain stable.
